Profitabilitas sebagai Katalisator: Keputusan Keuangan dan Valuasi Pasar Emiten Energi dan Barang Baku di BEI pada Era Pasca-Pandemi

Abstract

Market valuation of energy and basic materials firms is shaped not only by financial policy choices, but by the profitability fundamentals that validate those choices. This study examines the role of investment decisions, capital structure, and dividend policy on firm value while repositioning profitability from a static determinant to an active quasi moderator. Using balanced panel data from 56 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) over the post-pandemic recovery period 2021–2024 (224 firm-years), and estimated through a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with entity-clustered Robust Standard Errors, the findings reveal that capital structure exerts a significant positive effect on firm value, whereas investment decisions and dividend policy yield no significant direct impact. Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) with mean-centering confirms that profitability significantly moderates both asset expansion and leverage utilization on firm value. Notably, profitability attenuates the effect of asset expansion on firm value consistent with the overinvestment hypothesis, whereby aggressive capital expenditure by high-profitability firms raises market concerns about value-destroying empire building. Conversely, profitability amplifies the positive effect of capital structure, confirming that high earnings effectively neutralize financial distress risk. These findings underscore that financial policy outcomes are profitability-contingent, offering investors a more reliable valuation lens for energy and basic materials issuers in volatile emerging markets.